BYD (002594): June sales slightly exceeded expectations, optimistic market share continues to increase

BYD (002594): June sales slightly exceeded expectations, optimistic market share continues to increase

Event: The company released a June sales report, and June new energy passenger car sales2.

60,000, an annual increase of 58.

8%, an increase of 23 from the previous month.

5%, cumulative sales from January to June 14.

10,000, an annual increase of 97.

5%; sales of new energy commercial vehicles in June were 722 units, cumulative sales of 4,892 units from January to June, a gradual increase of 35.

4%; new energy passenger cars continue to grow rapidly.

Comments: 1. We think that the company ‘s June sales of new energy passenger cars slightly exceeded market expectations, and the main models maintained stable sales. At the same time, the monthly sales of newly launched e1 and S2 reached 1,000 and 2,000 units, respectively, and it is expected to continue to increase sequentially.

We believe that the market is currently too pessimistic about the sales of new energy vehicles. From the second quarter, the industry sales in 杭州桑拿网 April-May were higher than in March, but the sales were up in June. We believe that the “weak” industry sales in the second quarter must be: a. The overdraft effect in March, due to the transition period at the end of March, with additional discounts during the transition period, so manufacturers concentrated in March, overdraft, some overdrafts of consumer demand; b, the suppressive effect of the five-country inventory of fuel vehicles due toArea 7.

On the 1st, the implementation of the National Six emission standard for fuel vehicles began. In the second quarter, the National V model concentrated on clearing inventory. Under the correction of the downturn in consumption, manufacturers have discounted the National V models prominently, and some models have discounts of 30-40%.New energy vehicles themselves rely on cost to replace the demand for fuel vehicles, and the short-term preferential range of fuel vehicles has caused the cost of new energy vehicles to be not obvious. From the second half of the year, the inventory of converted fuel vehicles has been cleared, and the prices of national vehicles have basically returned.The pre-discount level has restored the impact on new energy vehicles, and demand has picked up again in advance. From the perspective of industry sales, the third quarter is the low season for industry demand. We judge that the industry may fluctuate slightly from June to June (still in June)The rush-install effect exists in the transition period, but the marginal effect is not large). Since September, we have managed to continue to improve from the previous month and maintain the judgment of 1.4 million sustainable new energy passenger cars (the pressure of double points for auto companies is still under pressure).

And we believe that BYD is still the most reasonable model and the most comprehensive company in the market, and the company’s market share is constantly increasing.

2. Toyota accelerated the process of electrification, and BYD Power Battery was certified.

Toyota said that by 2025, the company’s new energy vehicle sales will increase to more than 5.5 million units (including EV, PHEV, FCV), about 5 years ahead of schedule. By 2030, HV + PHEV sales will be 4.5 million, and EV + FCV sales will be 100.Million, which indicates that Toyota’s electrification process is accelerating, and it is of great significance to identify Ningde Times and BYD as power battery suppliers in the China layout.

As a leading company in new energy vehicles, BYD also ranks at the forefront of power battery technology in China, and its foreign supply is progressing slowly. Due to the late opening of the company’s external supply, overseas manufacturers are recognized as strict and have serious processes.Concerns of controlling relationships.

The cooperation agreement reached with CATL and Toyota at the same time also proved the company’s power battery strength. In the future, the power battery business spin-off will be transformed, which is expected to further open up external supply.

Risk warning: the cost reduction is not up to expectations, and the sales of new energy models are lower than expected.

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